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Gillingham vs Newport County: prediction and statistics
England · League Two · 3 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 10.0 corners in the match: Gillingham 5.5, Newport County 4.5. In a typical match of this competition — 9.8. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 54% (typical match — 52%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 9.5 — 54%, typical match 52%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.0 yellow cards: Gillingham 2.0, Newport County 2.0; typical match of the competition — 3.7. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 36% (typical match — 31%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 56%, typical match 51%.
Result
Market line without margin: Gillingham win 48%, draw 27%, Newport County win 25%. Over 2.5 goals — 47%, both teams to score — 50%.
Form
Gillingham: last five matches — L-D-W-W-L.
- 3 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
Newport County: last five matches — L-L-L-D-W.
- 4 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · away
- 3 matches in a row without both teams scoring · away
Table: Gillingham — 8, Newport County — 17 (of 24).
Team statistics for three seasons
Gillingham at home and Newport County away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Gillingham | Newport County | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 50 | 50 |
| Win rate | 40% | 18% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.2 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 58% |
| Both teams score | 48% | 48% |
| Total corners per match | 8.6 | 9.5 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 36% | 54% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.5 | 3.8 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 46% | 36% |
Head to head
10 meetings in our database: Gillingham won 2, 1 draws, Newport County won 7. Per match: 3.8 goals, 9.1 corners, 5.4 yellow cards.
- 17.01.2026: Gillingham 3:2 Newport County
- 01.11.2025: Newport County 6:5 Gillingham
- 20.09.2025: Newport County 1:3 Gillingham
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Gillingham vs Newport County?
Our model expects 10.0 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 54%.
How many yellow cards in Gillingham vs Newport County?
Our model expects 4.0 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 36%.
Who is more likely to win Gillingham vs Newport County?
Market line without margin: Gillingham 48%, draw 27%, Newport County 25%.