Xpect
Gimnasia Y Tiro vs Atletico DE Rafaela: prediction and statistics
Argentina · Primera Nacional · 27 September 2026 · kick-off
Yellow cards
Yellow cards over 4.5
Our model expects 5.0 yellow cards: Gimnasia Y Tiro 2.2, Atletico DE Rafaela 2.7; typical match of the competition — 4.9. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 55% (typical match — 54%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 4.5 — 55%, typical match 54%.
Form
Gimnasia Y Tiro: last five matches — D-W-W-W-D.
- 8 matches unbeaten · at home
- 8 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · at home
- 4 matches in a row without both teams scoring · at home
Atletico DE Rafaela: last five matches — L-D-D-L-L.
- 14 matches without a win · away
- 4 matches in a row over 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
Table: Gimnasia Y Tiro — 13, Atletico DE Rafaela — 15 (of 36).
Team statistics for three seasons
Gimnasia Y Tiro at home and Atletico DE Rafaela away, 2024–2026.
| Gimnasia Y Tiro | Atletico DE Rafaela | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 53 | 36 |
| Win rate | 55% | 11% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.5 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 19% | 22% |
| Both teams score | 28% | 39% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.5 | 4.8 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 53% | 50% |
Head to head
3 meetings in our database: Gimnasia Y Tiro won 1, 1 draws, Atletico DE Rafaela won 1. Per match: 0.7 goals, 3.3 yellow cards.
- 09.05.2026: Atletico DE Rafaela 1:0 Gimnasia Y Tiro
- 06.07.2024: Atletico DE Rafaela 0:0 Gimnasia Y Tiro
- 18.02.2024: Gimnasia Y Tiro 1:0 Atletico DE Rafaela
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many yellow cards in Gimnasia Y Tiro vs Atletico DE Rafaela?
Our model expects 5.0 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 55%.