Gorilla vs Gicumbi: prediction and statistics

Rwanda · National Soccer League · 4 November 2026 · kick-off 13:00 UTC

Team stats: Gorilla · Gicumbi

Key facts

• Our model makes Gorilla the favourite at 50%; a draw is 27%.
• 2 of the 4 meetings between these teams ended in a draw.
• Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 43% of Gorilla home games and 43% of Gicumbi away games.

Result

Our model: Gorilla win 50%, draw 27%, Gicumbi win 23%. Over 2.5 goals — 42%, both teams to score — 46%.

Form

Gorilla: last five matches — L-W-L-W-W.

• 5 matches unbeaten · all competitions

Gicumbi: last five matches — L-W-W-L-L.

• 3 matches without a win · all competitions
• 3 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · all competitions
• 3 matches in a row without both teams scoring · all competitions

Table: Gorilla — 2, Gicumbi — 4 (of 19).

Team statistics for three seasons

Gorilla at home and Gicumbi away, 2024–2026.

Head to head

4 meetings in our database: Gorilla won 1, 2 draws, Gicumbi won 1. Per match: 1.0 goals.

• 21.03.2026: Gicumbi 0:1 Gorilla
• 17.10.2025: Gorilla 0:0 Gicumbi
• 05.03.2022: Gicumbi 1:1 Gorilla

Referee

The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.

How we calculate

Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.

Questions and answers