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Hearts of Oak vs Heart of Lions: prediction and statistics
Ghana · Premier League · 8 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Hearts of Oak · Heart of Lions
Key facts
- Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 16% of Hearts of Oak home games and 47% of Heart of Lions away games.
- Our model makes Hearts of Oak the favourite at 63%; a draw is 26%.
Result
Final score 3:0.
Result
Our model: Hearts of Oak win 63%, draw 26%, Heart of Lions win 11%. Over 2.5 goals — 29%, both teams to score — 27%.
Form
Hearts of Oak: last five matches — W-W-D-W-W.
- 16 matches unbeaten · at home
- 7 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · all competitions
- 7 matches in a row without both teams scoring · all competitions
Heart of Lions: last five matches — L-L-W-L-L.
- 5 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · away
- 5 matches in a row both teams scored · away
Table: Hearts of Oak — 3, Heart of Lions — 13 (of 18).
Team statistics for three seasons
Hearts of Oak at home and Heart of Lions away, 2024–2026.
| Hearts of Oak | Heart of Lions | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 38 | 38 |
| Win rate | 47% | 18% |
| Goals scored per match | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.4 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 16% | 47% |
| Both teams score | 16% | 45% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.0 | 2.6 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 16% | 16% |
Head to head
16 meetings in our database: Hearts of Oak won 5, 6 draws, Heart of Lions won 5. Per match: 1.8 goals, 3.7 yellow cards.
- 20.03.2026: Heart of Lions 0:0 Hearts of Oak
- 13.10.2025: Hearts of Oak 0:0 Heart of Lions
- 31.01.2025: Hearts of Oak 1:0 Heart of Lions
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
Who is more likely to win Hearts of Oak vs Heart of Lions?
Our model: Hearts of Oak 63%, draw 26%, Heart of Lions 11%.