Xpect
Hoffenheim II vs Verl: prediction and statistics
Germany · 3. Liga · 18 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 10.0 corners in the match: Hoffenheim II 4.8, Verl 5.2. In a typical match of this competition — 10.1. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 54% (typical match — 56%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 10.5 — 58%, typical match 57%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.5 yellow cards: Hoffenheim II 2.1, Verl 2.3; typical match of the competition — 4.5. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 46% (typical match — 48%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 54%, typical match 52%.
Result
Our model: Hoffenheim II win 38%, draw 23%, Verl win 39%. Over 2.5 goals — 65%, both teams to score — 66%.
Form
Hoffenheim II: last five matches — W-L-W-D-W.
- 3 matches unbeaten · at home
Verl: last five matches — L-L-W-D-L.
- 3 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · away
Table: Hoffenheim II — 7, Verl — 11 (of 21).
Team statistics for three seasons
Hoffenheim II at home and Verl away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Hoffenheim II | Verl | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 23 | 41 |
| Win rate | 35% | 37% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.8 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.7 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 66% |
| Both teams score | 74% | 71% |
| Total corners per match | 9.2 | 10.1 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 53% | 53% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.3 | 4.5 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 39% | 54% |
Head to head
2 meetings in our database: Hoffenheim II won 0, 0 draws, Verl won 2. Per match: 5.0 goals, 8.0 corners, 6.5 yellow cards.
- 14.02.2026: Verl 3:1 Hoffenheim II
- 13.09.2025: Hoffenheim II 2:4 Verl
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own goals model — attack and defence of each team over its last 30 matches compared with the competition average, Poisson distribution for each team’s goals; tested the same way on 445,280 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Hoffenheim II vs Verl?
Our model expects 10.0 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 54%.
How many yellow cards in Hoffenheim II vs Verl?
Our model expects 4.5 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 46%.
Who is more likely to win Hoffenheim II vs Verl?
Our model: Hoffenheim II 38%, draw 23%, Verl 39%.