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Houston Dynamo vs Sporting Kansas City: prediction and statistics
USA · MLS · 27 September 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 9.7 corners in the match: Houston Dynamo 5.5, Sporting Kansas City 4.2. In a typical match of this competition — 10.0. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 50% (typical match — 54%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 10.5 — 62%, typical match 58%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.1 yellow cards: Houston Dynamo 1.9, Sporting Kansas City 2.2; typical match of the competition — 4.0. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 39% (typical match — 38%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 58%, typical match 57%.
Result
Market line without margin: Houston Dynamo win 63%, draw 21%, Sporting Kansas City win 16%. Over 2.5 goals — 59%, both teams to score — 55%.
Form
Houston Dynamo: last five matches — W-W-D-W-D.
- 11 matches unbeaten · at home
Sporting Kansas City: last five matches — L-L-L-L-L.
- 5 losses in a row · away
- 5 matches without a win · away
- 5 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · away
Table: Houston Dynamo — 7, Sporting Kansas City — 30 (of 30).
Team statistics for three seasons
Houston Dynamo at home and Sporting Kansas City away, 2024–2026.
| Houston Dynamo | Sporting Kansas City | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 48 | 46 |
| Win rate | 42% | 15% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.2 | 2.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 80% |
| Both teams score | 58% | 67% |
| Total corners per match | 9.7 | 9.6 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 52% | 41% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.7 | 3.4 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 63% | 22% |
Head to head
47 meetings in our database: Houston Dynamo won 15, 15 draws, Sporting Kansas City won 17. Per match: 2.6 goals, 9.6 corners, 4.1 yellow cards.
- 02.08.2026: Sporting Kansas City 0:2 Houston Dynamo
- 19.10.2025: Sporting Kansas City 0:0 Houston Dynamo
- 01.06.2025: Houston Dynamo 1:3 Sporting Kansas City
Referee
Tim Ford: 24 matches in our database, 4.3 yellow cards per match (competition average 4.2); over 4.5 cards in 42% of matches.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Houston Dynamo vs Sporting Kansas City?
Our model expects 9.7 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 50%.
How many yellow cards in Houston Dynamo vs Sporting Kansas City?
Our model expects 4.1 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 39%.
Who is more likely to win Houston Dynamo vs Sporting Kansas City?
Market line without margin: Houston Dynamo 63%, draw 21%, Sporting Kansas City 16%.