Xpect
Hungary vs Ukraine: prediction and statistics
Europe · Nations League · 25 September 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 8.8 corners in the match: Hungary 5.1, Ukraine 3.8. In a typical match of this competition — 9.1. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 39% (typical match — 42%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 9.5 — 61%, typical match 58%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.0 yellow cards: Hungary 1.9, Ukraine 2.0; typical match of the competition — 4.3. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 36% (typical match — 43%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 64%, typical match 57%.
Result
Market line without margin: Hungary win 41%, draw 29%, Ukraine win 30%. Over 2.5 goals — 46%, both teams to score — 52%.
Form
Hungary: last five matches — L-D-D-D-L.
- 6 matches without a win · at home
Ukraine: last five matches — W-L-D-W-L.
- 3 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
Team statistics for three seasons
Hungary at home and Ukraine away, 2024–2026.
| Hungary | Ukraine | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 15 | 15 |
| Win rate | 47% | 40% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.3 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.0 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 73% |
| Both teams score | 40% | 67% |
| Total corners per match | 9.5 | 8.4 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 53% | 36% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.3 | 4.4 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 33% | 50% |
Referee
Jarred Gillett: 93 matches in our database, 4.7 yellow cards per match (competition average 4.7); over 4.5 cards in 45% of matches.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Hungary vs Ukraine?
Our model expects 8.8 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 39%.
How many yellow cards in Hungary vs Ukraine?
Our model expects 4.0 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 36%.
Who is more likely to win Hungary vs Ukraine?
Market line without margin: Hungary 41%, draw 29%, Ukraine 30%.