Xpect
Iğdır FK vs Ümraniyespor: prediction and statistics
Türkiye · 1. Lig · 20 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Iğdır FK · Ümraniyespor
Before kick-off
1. Lig, 20 November 2026: Iğdır FK are at home to Ümraniyespor. Iğdır FK sit 3rd in the 20-team table while Ümraniyespor are 13th, so 10 places separate the two sides. Iğdır FK are part of the leading group.
Few sides are in better shape than Iğdır FK right now — 4 wins and 1 draw from the last 5 games. Ümraniyespor have been solid lately: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in the last 5 matches. On points from those games the gap is clear: 13 for Iğdır FK against 8 for Ümraniyespor.
At home (2024/25–2026/27) Iğdır FK have 21 wins, 13 draws and 11 defeats in 45 matches, averaging 1.5 goals scored and 0.9 conceded. The away record of Ümraniyespor: 13 wins, 8 draws and 23 defeats in 44 matches, with 0.9 goals scored and 1.3 conceded on average.
This fixture often ends level: 2 of the 4 meetings in the Xpect database were draws. The most recent meeting, on 13 February 2026, finished Iğdır FK 1:1 Ümraniyespor. On average these meetings produce 1.0 goals.
Form
Iğdır FK: last five matches — W-W-W-W-D.
- 5 matches unbeaten · at home
- 4 matches in a row under 9.5 corners · at home
- 3 matches without a win · all competitions
Ümraniyespor: last five matches — D-L-W-W-D.
- 7 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 6 matches in a row under 9.5 corners · away
- 4 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · away
Table: Iğdır FK — 3, Ümraniyespor — 13 (of 20).
Home and away record
Iğdır FK at home and Ümraniyespor away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Iğdır FK | Ümraniyespor | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 45 | 44 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 21-13-11 | 13-8-23 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.5 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.9 | 1.3 |
Head to head
4 meetings in our database: Iğdır FK won 2, 2 draws, Ümraniyespor won 0. Per match: 1.0 goals.
- 13.02.2026: Iğdır FK 1:1 Ümraniyespor
- 19.09.2025: Ümraniyespor 0:1 Iğdır FK
- 28.03.2025: Iğdır FK 0:0 Ümraniyespor
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- No clear favourite in our model: 45% – 27% – 29%.
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 44% of Iğdır FK’s home matches and 41% of Ümraniyespor’s away matches over three seasons.
- Draws are common in this fixture: 2 of 4 meetings.
- Our model expects more corners from Iğdır FK: 5.4 against 3.6 for Ümraniyespor.
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 9.0 corners in the match: Iğdır FK 5.4, Ümraniyespor 3.6. In a typical match of this competition — 9.0. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 42% (typical match — 41%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 8.5 — 55%, typical match 55%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.0 yellow cards: Iğdır FK 2.1, Ümraniyespor 2.0; typical match of the competition — 4.7. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 38% (typical match — 50%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 62%, typical match 50%.
Result
Our model: Iğdır FK win 45%, draw 27%, Ümraniyespor win 29%. Over 2.5 goals — 45%, both teams to score — 50%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Iğdır FK | Ümraniyespor | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 47% | 30% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 41% |
| Both teams score | 47% | 36% |
| Total corners per match | 9.4 | 9.2 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 53% | 36% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.6 | 3.9 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 53% | 36% |
Head to head
Corners in their meetings: 8.3 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 3.0 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.