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Ilbirs vs Toktogul: prediction and statistics
Kyrgyzstan · Premier League · 4 November 2026 · kick-off
Key facts
- No clear favourite in our model: 33% – 25% – 42%.
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 49% of Ilbirs’s home matches and 39% of Toktogul’s away matches over three seasons.
Result
Final score 3:4.
Result
Our model: Ilbirs win 33%, draw 25%, Toktogul win 42%. Over 2.5 goals — 52%, both teams to score — 56%.
Form
Ilbirs: last five matches — D-W-D-L-D.
- 5 matches without a win · all competitions
Toktogul: last five matches — D-L-L-L-L.
- 7 matches without a win · away
- 4 losses in a row · away
- 3 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
Table: Ilbirs — 12, Toktogul — 11 (of 16).
Team statistics for three seasons
Ilbirs at home and Toktogul away, 2024–2026.
| Ilbirs | Toktogul | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 39 | 13 |
| Win rate | 26% | 23% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.5 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 39% |
| Both teams score | 56% | 39% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 0% | 0% |
Head to head
1 meetings in our database: Ilbirs won 0, 0 draws, Toktogul won 1. Per match: 5.0 goals.
- 06.03.2026: Toktogul 3:2 Ilbirs
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
Who is more likely to win Ilbirs vs Toktogul?
Our model: Ilbirs 33%, draw 25%, Toktogul 42%.