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Inca Aruba vs Isidro Metapán: prediction and statistics
El Salvador · Primera División · 7 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Inca Aruba · Isidro Metapán
Key facts
- No clear favourite in our model: 29% – 27% – 43%.
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 56% of Inca Aruba’s home matches and 49% of Isidro Metapán’s away matches over three seasons.
Result
Final score 1:1.
Result
Our model: Inca Aruba win 29%, draw 27%, Isidro Metapán win 43%. Over 2.5 goals — 44%, both teams to score — 49%.
Form
Inca Aruba: last five matches — W-W-W-L-L.
- 5 matches without a win · all competitions
- 4 losses in a row · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · all competitions
Isidro Metapán: last five matches — W-D-L-D-L.
- 4 matches without a win · away
- 4 matches in a row without both teams scoring · away
- 3 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · all competitions
Table: Inca Aruba — 11, Isidro Metapán — 3 (of 12).
Team statistics for three seasons
Inca Aruba at home and Isidro Metapán away, 2024–2026.
| Inca Aruba | Isidro Metapán | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 9 | 57 |
| Win rate | 33% | 37% |
| Goals scored per match | 0.9 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.8 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 49% |
| Both teams score | 56% | 51% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 0% | 0% |
Head to head
1 meetings in our database: Inca Aruba won 1, 0 draws, Isidro Metapán won 0. Per match: 1.0 goals.
- 06.09.2026: Isidro Metapán 0:1 Inca Aruba
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
Who is more likely to win Inca Aruba vs Isidro Metapán?
Our model: Inca Aruba 29%, draw 27%, Isidro Metapán 43%.