Xpect
Inter U23 vs Potenza: prediction and statistics
Italy · Serie C – Girone C · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Inter U23 · Potenza
Before kick-off
Inter U23 host Potenza in Serie C – Girone C on 21 November 2026. In the table there is clear daylight between them: Potenza are 1st of 20, Inter U23 7th — a gap of 6 places.
Inter U23 have been solid lately: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in the last 5 matches. Few sides are in better shape than Potenza right now — 3 wins and 2 draws from the last 5 games. Measured in points the two runs are close — 10 and 11.
The home record of Inter U23 (2024/25–2026/27) is balanced: 3 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats in 7 matches, 1.7 scored and 1.7 conceded per game. Away from home Potenza have 13 wins, 14 draws and 17 defeats in 44 matches, scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.6 per game.
There are no previous meetings between the two sides in the Xpect database.
Form
Inter U23: last five matches — W-L-D-W-W.
- 3 matches unbeaten · at home
- 3 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
Potenza: last five matches — D-W-W-D-W.
- 10 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 9 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
- 9 matches in a row both teams scored · all competitions
Table: Inter U23 — 7, Potenza — 1 (of 20).
Home and away record
Inter U23 at home and Potenza away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Inter U23 | Potenza | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 7 | 44 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 3-2-2 | 13-14-17 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.7 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.7 | 1.6 |
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 57% of Inter U23 home games and 59% of Potenza away games.
- Our model makes Potenza the favourite at 50%; a draw is 24%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.9 yellow cards: Inter U23 2.0, Potenza 1.9; typical match of the competition — 5.0. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 34% (typical match — 56%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 66%, typical match 44%.
Result
Our model: Inter U23 win 26%, draw 24%, Potenza win 50%. Over 2.5 goals — 55%, both teams to score — 57%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Inter U23 | Potenza | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 43% | 30% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 59% |
| Both teams score | 86% | 59% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.4 | 4.2 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 29% | 34% |
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.