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Inverness CT vs Ayr Utd: prediction and statistics
Scotland · Championship · 20 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Inverness CT · Ayr Utd
Before kick-off
Championship, 20 November 2026: Inverness CT are at home to Ayr Utd. They are neighbours in the table: Inverness CT are 6th and Ayr Utd 7th of 10.
Few sides are in better shape than Inverness CT right now — 4 wins and 1 draw from the last 5 games. Ayr Utd have been solid lately: 3 wins and 2 defeats in the last 5 matches.
At home (2024/25–2026/27) Inverness CT have 3 wins, 3 draws and 1 defeat in 7 matches, averaging 1.1 goals scored and 0.6 conceded. The away record of Ayr Utd: 13 wins, 13 draws and 16 defeats in 42 matches, with 1.1 goals scored and 1.3 conceded on average.
Head to head there is no clear master over 24 meetings — wins: Inverness CT 13, Ayr Utd 5; draws: 6. The most recent meeting, on 12 September 2026, finished Ayr Utd 1:3 Inverness CT. On average these meetings produce 2.6 goals.
Form
Inverness CT: last five matches — W-W-W-W-D.
- 10 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · at home
- 5 matches unbeaten · at home
- 3 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · at home
Ayr Utd: last five matches — L-W-W-W-L.
Table: Inverness CT — 6, Ayr Utd — 7 (of 10).
Home and away record
Inverness CT at home and Ayr Utd away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Inverness CT | Ayr Utd | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 7 | 42 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 3-3-1 | 13-13-16 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.6 | 1.3 |
Head to head
24 meetings in our database: Inverness CT won 13, 6 draws, Ayr Utd won 5. Per match: 2.6 goals.
- 12.09.2026: Ayr Utd 1:3 Inverness CT
- 24.02.2026: Ayr Utd 1:2 Inverness CT
- 16.03.2024: Inverness CT 1:2 Ayr Utd
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 0% of Inverness CT’s home matches and 36% of Ayr Utd’s away matches over three seasons.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.0 yellow cards: Inverness CT 1.7, Ayr Utd 2.3; typical match of the competition — 3.9. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 38% (typical match — 35%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 58%, typical match 55%.
Result
Our model: Inverness CT win 49%, draw 25%, Ayr Utd win 26%. Over 2.5 goals — 49%, both teams to score — 52%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Inverness CT | Ayr Utd | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 43% | 31% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 0% | 36% |
| Both teams score | 29% | 50% |
| Total corners per match | 7.5 | 10.2 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 0% | 50% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.0 | 4.5 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 14% | 55% |
Head to head
Yellow cards in their meetings: 2.8 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.