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Istra 1961 vs Neretva Metković: prediction and statistics
Croatia · Croatian Cup · 3 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Istra 1961
Key facts
- Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 83% of Istra 1961 home games and 33% of Neretva Metković away games.
- Our model makes Istra 1961 the favourite at 63%; a draw is 20%.
Result
Final score 3:0.
Result
Our model: Istra 1961 win 63%, draw 20%, Neretva Metković win 17%. Over 2.5 goals — 59%, both teams to score — 55%.
Form
Istra 1961: last five matches — W-D-W-L-D.
Neretva Metković: last five matches — D-D-L-W-D.
- 5 matches unbeaten · all competitions
Team statistics for three seasons
Istra 1961 at home and Neretva Metković away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Istra 1961 | Neretva Metković | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| Win rate | 50% | 33% |
| Goals scored per match | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 83% | 33% |
| Both teams score | 50% | 50% |
| Total corners per match | 8.0 | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | 17% | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | 5.0 | — |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 50% | — |
Head to head
1 meetings in our database: Istra 1961 won 1, 0 draws, Neretva Metković won 0. Per match: 3.0 goals.
- 16.09.2025: Neretva Metković 1:2 Istra 1961
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
Who is more likely to win Istra 1961 vs Neretva Metković?
Our model: Istra 1961 63%, draw 20%, Neretva Metković 17%.