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Italy vs Belgium: prediction and statistics
Europe · Nations League · 25 September 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 9.1 corners in the match: Italy 4.6, Belgium 4.5. In a typical match of this competition — 9.1. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 43% (typical match — 42%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 8.5 — 56%, typical match 55%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.6 yellow cards: Italy 1.8, Belgium 1.9; typical match of the competition — 4.3. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 30% (typical match — 43%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 3.5 — 51%, typical match 37%.
Result
Market line without margin: Italy win 43%, draw 27%, Belgium win 29%. Over 2.5 goals — 53%, both teams to score — 58%.
Form
Italy: last five matches — W-D-W-L-L.
- 6 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · at home
- 4 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · at home
- 4 matches in a row both teams scored · at home
Belgium: last five matches — L-L-D-L-L.
- 6 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
- 5 matches without a win · away
- 4 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
Team statistics for three seasons
Italy at home and Belgium away, 2024–2026.
| Italy | Belgium | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 12 | 13 |
| Win rate | 58% | 31% |
| Goals scored per match | 2.0 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 46% |
| Both teams score | 50% | 62% |
| Total corners per match | 11.4 | 10.1 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 64% | 69% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 2.3 | 3.7 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 8% | 33% |
Head to head
5 meetings in our database: Italy won 4, 1 draws, Belgium won 0. Per match: 2.6 goals, 11.8 corners, 4.2 yellow cards.
- 14.11.2024: Belgium 0:1 Italy
- 10.10.2024: Italy 2:2 Belgium
- 10.10.2021: Italy 2:1 Belgium
Referee
Daniel Siebert: 364 matches in our database, 4.2 yellow cards per match (competition average 4.7); over 4.5 cards in 43% of matches.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Italy vs Belgium?
Our model expects 9.1 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 43%.
How many yellow cards in Italy vs Belgium?
Our model expects 3.6 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 30%.
Who is more likely to win Italy vs Belgium?
Market line without margin: Italy 43%, draw 27%, Belgium 29%.