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Iwaki vs Vegalta Sendai: prediction and statistics
Japan · J2 League · 26 September 2026 · kick-off
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 2.8 yellow cards: Iwaki 1.4, Vegalta Sendai 1.4; typical match of the competition — 2.5. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 16% (typical match — 11%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 84%, typical match 89%.
Result
Market line without margin: Iwaki win 27%, draw 29%, Vegalta Sendai win 44%. Over 2.5 goals — 50%, both teams to score — 54%.
Form
Iwaki: last five matches — W-D-W-L-W.
- 3 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
Vegalta Sendai: last five matches — L-W-W-L-W.
- 6 matches in a row both teams scored · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · away
Table: Iwaki — 13, Vegalta Sendai — 2 (of 20).
Team statistics for three seasons
Iwaki at home and Vegalta Sendai away, 2024–2026.
| Iwaki | Vegalta Sendai | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 41 | 44 |
| Win rate | 37% | 45% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.5 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 41% |
| Both teams score | 61% | 50% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | 2.4 | 3.2 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 5% | 16% |
Head to head
6 meetings in our database: Iwaki won 2, 1 draws, Vegalta Sendai won 3. Per match: 2.3 goals, 3.0 yellow cards.
- 29.11.2025: Vegalta Sendai 0:1 Iwaki
- 25.05.2025: Iwaki 1:2 Vegalta Sendai
- 31.08.2024: Vegalta Sendai 2:0 Iwaki
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many yellow cards in Iwaki vs Vegalta Sendai?
Our model expects 2.8 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 16%.
Who is more likely to win Iwaki vs Vegalta Sendai?
Market line without margin: Iwaki 27%, draw 29%, Vegalta Sendai 44%.