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Jaguares vs Alianza Valledupar: prediction and statistics
Colombia · Primera A · 27 September 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 9.0 corners in the match: Jaguares 5.0, Alianza Valledupar 4.0. In a typical match of this competition — 9.1. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 41% (typical match — 43%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 9.5 — 59%, typical match 57%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards over 4.5
Our model expects 5.8 yellow cards: Jaguares 2.8, Alianza Valledupar 2.9; typical match of the competition — 5.7. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 68% (typical match — 67%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 4.5 — 68%, typical match 67%.
Result
Market line without margin: Jaguares win 42%, draw 31%, Alianza Valledupar win 27%. Over 2.5 goals — 43%, both teams to score — 50%.
Form
Jaguares: last five matches — L-D-W-D-D.
- 5 matches in a row over 9.5 corners · all competitions
- 4 matches unbeaten · at home
- 4 matches in a row over 4.5 yellow cards · at home
Alianza Valledupar: last five matches — L-D-L-L-W.
- 3 matches in a row over 9.5 corners · all competitions
Table: Jaguares — 16, Alianza Valledupar — 18 (of 20).
Team statistics for three seasons
Jaguares at home and Alianza Valledupar away, 2024–2026.
| Jaguares | Alianza Valledupar | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 34 | 52 |
| Win rate | 35% | 17% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.1 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.0 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 35% | 40% |
| Both teams score | 44% | 37% |
| Total corners per match | 9.7 | 8.7 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 50% | 38% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 5.5 | 4.7 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 68% | 48% |
Head to head
21 meetings in our database: Jaguares won 4, 8 draws, Alianza Valledupar won 9. Per match: 2.0 goals, 9.5 corners, 5.9 yellow cards.
- 19.03.2026: Alianza Valledupar 1:0 Jaguares
- 10.11.2024: Jaguares 0:0 Alianza Valledupar
- 21.04.2024: Alianza Valledupar 2:1 Jaguares
Referee
Wilmar Roldan: 269 matches in our database, 4.9 yellow cards per match (competition average 5.6); over 4.5 cards in 54% of matches.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Jaguares vs Alianza Valledupar?
Our model expects 9.0 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 41%.
How many yellow cards in Jaguares vs Alianza Valledupar?
Our model expects 5.8 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 68%.
Who is more likely to win Jaguares vs Alianza Valledupar?
Market line without margin: Jaguares 42%, draw 31%, Alianza Valledupar 27%.