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Jarabacoa vs Vega Real: prediction and statistics
Dominican Republic · Liga Mayor · 7 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Jarabacoa · Vega Real
Key facts
- Our model makes Vega Real the favourite at 55%; a draw is 25%.
- Vega Real has won 12 of the last 19 meetings with Jarabacoa.
- Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 39% of Jarabacoa home games and 62% of Vega Real away games.
Result
Final score 0:2.
Result
Our model: Jarabacoa win 21%, draw 25%, Vega Real win 55%. Over 2.5 goals — 47%, both teams to score — 48%.
Form
Jarabacoa: last five matches — W-L-L-D-W.
Vega Real: last five matches — L-L-L-W-L.
- 4 matches without a win · all competitions
Table: Jarabacoa — 7, Vega Real — 4 (of 8).
Team statistics for three seasons
Jarabacoa at home and Vega Real away, 2024–2026.
| Jarabacoa | Vega Real | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 13 | 26 |
| Win rate | 23% | 27% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.1 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39% | 62% |
| Both teams score | 54% | 46% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 0% | 0% |
Head to head
19 meetings in our database: Jarabacoa won 3, 4 draws, Vega Real won 12. Per match: 2.8 goals.
- 23.09.2026: Vega Real 3:1 Jarabacoa
- 05.12.2025: Vega Real 3:0 Jarabacoa
- 20.09.2025: Jarabacoa 2:1 Vega Real
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
Who is more likely to win Jarabacoa vs Vega Real?
Our model: Jarabacoa 21%, draw 25%, Vega Real 55%.