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Junior vs Independiente Medellin: prediction and statistics
Colombia · Primera A · 27 September 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 9.5 corners in the match: Junior 5.3, Independiente Medellin 4.2. In a typical match of this competition — 9.1. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 48% (typical match — 43%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 8.5 — 61%, typical match 56%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards over 4.5
Our model expects 5.3 yellow cards: Junior 2.5, Independiente Medellin 2.8; typical match of the competition — 5.7. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 61% (typical match — 67%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 77%, typical match 82%.
Result
Market line without margin: Junior win 43%, draw 29%, Independiente Medellin win 28%. Over 2.5 goals — 51%, both teams to score — 56%.
Form
Junior: last five matches — W-L-D-D-D.
- 4 matches without a win · at home
- 3 matches unbeaten · at home
- 3 matches in a row both teams scored · at home
Independiente Medellin: last five matches — L-W-W-L-D.
- 5 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row under 9.5 corners · away
- 3 matches in a row both teams scored · all competitions
Table: Junior — 5, Independiente Medellin — 9 (of 20).
Team statistics for three seasons
Junior at home and Independiente Medellin away, 2024–2026.
| Junior | Independiente Medellin | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 69 | 59 |
| Win rate | 58% | 37% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.7 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.0 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 49% |
| Both teams score | 54% | 56% |
| Total corners per match | 9.4 | 8.7 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 42% | 36% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 5.3 | 6.0 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 54% | 73% |
Head to head
32 meetings in our database: Junior won 15, 7 draws, Independiente Medellin won 10. Per match: 2.3 goals, 9.3 corners, 6.4 yellow cards.
- 20.03.2026: Independiente Medellin 2:0 Junior
- 08.12.2025: Independiente Medellin 2:1 Junior
- 20.11.2025: Junior 1:0 Independiente Medellin
Referee
Jhon Ospina: 173 matches in our database, 6.2 yellow cards per match (competition average 5.6); over 4.5 cards in 77% of matches.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Junior vs Independiente Medellin?
Our model expects 9.5 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 48%.
How many yellow cards in Junior vs Independiente Medellin?
Our model expects 5.3 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 61%.
Who is more likely to win Junior vs Independiente Medellin?
Market line without margin: Junior 43%, draw 29%, Independiente Medellin 28%.