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Juventud vs Cerro: prediction and statistics
Uruguay · Primera División · 27 September 2026 · kick-off
Yellow cards
Yellow cards over 4.5
Our model expects 5.9 yellow cards: Juventud 2.4, Cerro 3.4; typical match of the competition — 5.5. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 70% (typical match — 64%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 4.5 — 70%, typical match 64%.
Result
Market line without margin: Juventud win 54%, draw 28%, Cerro win 18%. Over 2.5 goals — 41%, both teams to score — 42%.
Form
Juventud: last five matches — L-L-L-W-D.
- 5 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · at home
- 3 matches in a row both teams scored · all competitions
Cerro: last five matches — L-W-L-D-W.
Table: Juventud — 9, Cerro — 13 (of 16).
Team statistics for three seasons
Juventud at home and Cerro away, 2024–2026.
| Juventud | Cerro | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 25 | 37 |
| Win rate | 56% | 16% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.5 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.1 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 57% |
| Both teams score | 52% | 43% |
| Total corners per match | — | 11.0 |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | 50% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.9 | 5.4 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 56% | 62% |
Head to head
14 meetings in our database: Juventud won 3, 5 draws, Cerro won 6. Per match: 2.7 goals, 5.0 yellow cards.
- 25.03.2026: Cerro 1:0 Juventud
- 08.03.2025: Cerro 2:1 Juventud
- 25.08.2022: Juventud 1:1 Cerro
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many yellow cards in Juventud vs Cerro?
Our model expects 5.9 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 70%.
Who is more likely to win Juventud vs Cerro?
Market line without margin: Juventud 54%, draw 28%, Cerro 18%.