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Kalamata vs AEK Athens FC: prediction and statistics
Greece · Super League · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Kalamata · AEK Athens FC
Before kick-off
Super League, 21 November 2026: Kalamata are at home to AEK Athens FC. Kalamata go into the match 8th of 14 in the table, AEK Athens FC are 3rd. AEK Athens FC are in the top three.
Recent results of Kalamata are mostly positive — 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat from 5 games. Results have gone against AEK Athens FC recently — 1 win and 4 defeats from the last 5 games. On points from those games the gap is clear: 8 for Kalamata against 3 for AEK Athens FC.
At home (2024/25–2026/27) Kalamata have 3 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in 6 matches, averaging 1.8 goals scored and 1.5 conceded. AEK Athens FC travel well: 16 wins, 11 draws and 9 defeats in 36 away matches, with 1.3 goals scored and 0.9 conceded per game.
The sides have rarely met: the Xpect database holds 1 meeting between them. The most recent meeting, on 22 December 2011, finished Kalamata 0:1 AEK Athens FC.
Form
Kalamata: last five matches — W-D-L-W-D.
- 3 matches in a row under 9.5 corners · at home
- 3 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · all competitions
AEK Athens FC: last five matches — W-L-L-L-L.
- 4 losses in a row · away
- 4 matches without a win · away
Table: Kalamata — 8, AEK Athens FC — 3 (of 14).
Home and away record
Kalamata at home and AEK Athens FC away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Kalamata | AEK Athens FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 6 | 36 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 3-1-2 | 16-11-9 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.8 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.5 | 0.9 |
Head to head
1 meetings in our database: Kalamata won 0, 0 draws, AEK Athens FC won 1. Per match: 1.0 goals.
- 22.12.2011: Kalamata 0:1 AEK Athens FC
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- AEK Athens FC is the more likely winner in our model: 58%, draw 23%.
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 50% of Kalamata’s home matches and 39% of AEK Athens FC’s away matches over three seasons.
- Our model expects more corners from AEK Athens FC: 6.2 against 2.4 for Kalamata.
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 8.7 corners in the match: Kalamata 2.4, AEK Athens FC 6.2. In a typical match of this competition — 8.7. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 37% (typical match — 38%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 8.5 — 50%, typical match 49%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards over 4.5
Our model expects 5.2 yellow cards: Kalamata 2.5, AEK Athens FC 2.7; typical match of the competition — 5.2. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 60% (typical match — 59%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 4.5 — 60%, typical match 59%.
Result
Our model: Kalamata win 19%, draw 23%, AEK Athens FC win 58%. Over 2.5 goals — 53%, both teams to score — 52%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Kalamata | AEK Athens FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 50% | 44% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 39% |
| Both teams score | 67% | 42% |
| Total corners per match | 9.0 | 8.9 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 20% | 36% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.2 | 5.8 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 50% | 61% |
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.