Karvan vs Şimal: prediction and statistics

Azerbaijan · First Division · 5 November 2026 · kick-off 11:00 UTC

Team stats: Karvan · Şimal

Key facts

• Karvan is the more likely winner in our model: 78%, draw 15%.
• Over 2.5 goals happened in 63% of Karvan’s home matches and 67% of Şimal’s away matches over three seasons.

Result

Our model: Karvan win 78%, draw 15%, Şimal win 7%. Over 2.5 goals — 56%, both teams to score — 39%.

Form

Karvan: last five matches — W-L-L-W-W.

• 4 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · at home
• 4 matches in a row both teams scored · all competitions

Şimal: last five matches — L-D-W-D-W.

• 4 matches unbeaten · away
• 3 matches in a row both teams scored · away
• 3 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions

Table: Karvan — 5, Şimal — 6 (of 10).

Team statistics for three seasons

Karvan at home and Şimal away, 2024/25–2026/27.

Referee

The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.

How we calculate

Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.

Questions and answers