Xpect
KCCA vs Maroons: prediction and statistics
Uganda · Premier League · 4 November 2026 · kick-off
Key facts
- Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 55% of KCCA home games and 38% of Maroons away games.
- Our model makes KCCA the favourite at 58%; a draw is 26%.
Result
Final score 3:0.
Result
Our model: KCCA win 58%, draw 26%, Maroons win 16%. Over 2.5 goals — 35%, both teams to score — 35%.
Form
KCCA: last five matches — W-W-L-W-W.
- 6 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 5 wins in a row · all competitions
Maroons: last five matches — W-W-L-D-D.
- 4 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 3 matches without a win · away
- 3 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · away
Table: KCCA — 5, Maroons — 10 (of 18).
Team statistics for three seasons
KCCA at home and Maroons away, 2024–2026.
| KCCA | Maroons | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 33 | 34 |
| Win rate | 70% | 29% |
| Goals scored per match | 2.0 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.6 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 38% |
| Both teams score | 36% | 35% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | 1.8 | 1.3 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 25% | 9% |
Head to head
16 meetings in our database: KCCA won 8, 6 draws, Maroons won 2. Per match: 2.2 goals, 2.4 yellow cards.
- 07.05.2026: KCCA 3:0 Maroons
- 21.01.2026: Maroons 0:0 KCCA
- 02.03.2025: Maroons 0:0 KCCA
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
Who is more likely to win KCCA vs Maroons?
Our model: KCCA 58%, draw 26%, Maroons 16%.