Xpect
Lecce vs Bologna: prediction and statistics
Italy · Serie A · 11 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 9.5 corners in the match: Lecce 5.0, Bologna 4.5. In a typical match of this competition — 10.0. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 48% (typical match — 54%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 9.5 — 52%, typical match 46%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.3 yellow cards: Lecce 1.6, Bologna 1.7; typical match of the competition — 4.5. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 24% (typical match — 47%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 3.5 — 58%, typical match 34%.
Result
Market line without margin: Lecce win 23%, draw 28%, Bologna win 49%. Over 2.5 goals — 47%, both teams to score — 52%.
Form
Lecce: last five matches — D-W-W-L-W.
- 6 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
Bologna: last five matches — W-W-L-L-L.
- 7 matches without a win · all competitions
- 4 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · away
- 4 matches in a row without both teams scoring · away
Table: Lecce — 12, Bologna — 18 (of 20).
Team statistics for three seasons
Lecce at home and Bologna away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Lecce | Bologna | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 40 | 40 |
| Win rate | 25% | 40% |
| Goals scored per match | 0.7 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 53% |
| Both teams score | 38% | 53% |
| Total corners per match | 9.3 | 7.5 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 43% | 25% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.7 | 3.8 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 30% | 43% |
Head to head
28 meetings in our database: Lecce won 2, 12 draws, Bologna won 14. Per match: 2.3 goals, 10.3 corners, 4.4 yellow cards.
- 12.04.2026: Bologna 2:0 Lecce
- 28.09.2025: Lecce 2:2 Bologna
- 09.02.2025: Lecce 0:0 Bologna
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Lecce vs Bologna?
Our model expects 9.5 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 48%.
How many yellow cards in Lecce vs Bologna?
Our model expects 3.3 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 24%.
Who is more likely to win Lecce vs Bologna?
Market line without margin: Lecce 23%, draw 28%, Bologna 49%.