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Leganes vs Castellón: prediction and statistics
Spain · Segunda · 28 September 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 9.4 corners in the match: Leganes 4.8, Castellón 4.6. In a typical match of this competition — 9.3. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 46% (typical match — 46%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 8.5 — 59%, typical match 59%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards over 4.5
Our model expects 5.0 yellow cards: Leganes 2.5, Castellón 2.5; typical match of the competition — 5.1. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 56% (typical match — 57%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 74%, typical match 75%.
Result
Market line without margin: Leganes win 33%, draw 28%, Castellón win 39%. Over 2.5 goals — 51%, both teams to score — 56%.
Form
Leganes: last five matches — L-D-W-W-W.
- 4 matches unbeaten · at home
- 3 wins in a row · at home
Castellón: last five matches — W-L-W-W-W.
- 6 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 4 wins in a row · all competitions
Table: Leganes — 7, Castellón — 1 (of 22).
Team statistics for three seasons
Leganes at home and Castellón away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Leganes | Castellón | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 23 | 46 |
| Win rate | 39% | 33% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.1 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39% | 54% |
| Both teams score | 39% | 63% |
| Total corners per match | 10.0 | 10.2 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 52% | 48% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 5.1 | 4.7 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 56% | 53% |
Head to head
4 meetings in our database: Leganes won 0, 1 draws, Castellón won 3. Per match: 1.2 goals, 8.8 corners, 4.5 yellow cards.
- 16.01.2026: Castellón 2:0 Leganes
- 29.09.2025: Leganes 0:1 Castellón
- 06.03.2021: Leganes 0:0 Castellón
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Leganes vs Castellón?
Our model expects 9.4 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 46%.
How many yellow cards in Leganes vs Castellón?
Our model expects 5.0 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 56%.
Who is more likely to win Leganes vs Castellón?
Market line without margin: Leganes 33%, draw 28%, Castellón 39%.