Xpect
Lithuania vs Azerbaijan: prediction and statistics
Europe · Nations League · 27 September 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 9.3 corners in the match: Lithuania 4.8, Azerbaijan 4.5. In a typical match of this competition — 9.1. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 45% (typical match — 42%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 8.5 — 58%, typical match 55%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.3 yellow cards: Lithuania 1.9, Azerbaijan 2.3; typical match of the competition — 4.3. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 42% (typical match — 43%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 58%, typical match 57%.
Result
Market line without margin: Lithuania win 39%, draw 29%, Azerbaijan win 32%. Over 2.5 goals — 38%, both teams to score — 44%.
Form
Lithuania: last five matches — L-L-D-L-D.
- 11 matches without a win · at home
- 5 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · all competitions
Azerbaijan: last five matches — L-D-L-L-L.
- 9 matches without a win · away
- 4 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · away
- 3 losses in a row · away
Team statistics for three seasons
Lithuania at home and Azerbaijan away, 2024–2026.
| Lithuania | Azerbaijan | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 12 | 8 |
| Win rate | 8% | 0% |
| Goals scored per match | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.4 | 3.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33% | 75% |
| Both teams score | 58% | 38% |
| Total corners per match | 8.0 | 8.7 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 22% | 43% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 5.1 | 3.3 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 70% | 13% |
Head to head
1 meetings in our database: Lithuania won 0, 1 draws, Azerbaijan won 0. Per match: 0.0 goals, 5.0 yellow cards.
- 25.03.2019: Azerbaijan 0:0 Lithuania
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Lithuania vs Azerbaijan?
Our model expects 9.3 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 45%.
How many yellow cards in Lithuania vs Azerbaijan?
Our model expects 4.3 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 42%.
Who is more likely to win Lithuania vs Azerbaijan?
Market line without margin: Lithuania 39%, draw 29%, Azerbaijan 32%.