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Luxembourg vs Bulgaria: prediction and statistics
Europe · Nations League · 6 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 8.8 corners in the match: Luxembourg 4.8, Bulgaria 4.0. In a typical match of this competition — 9.0. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 39% (typical match — 41%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 9.5 — 61%, typical match 59%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards over 4.5
Our model expects 5.0 yellow cards: Luxembourg 2.4, Bulgaria 2.6; typical match of the competition — 4.3. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 56% (typical match — 43%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 4.5 — 56%, typical match 43%.
Form
Luxembourg: last five matches — L-L-L-W-L.
- 4 matches in a row without both teams scoring · at home
Bulgaria: last five matches — L-L-W-W-D.
- 9 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
- 3 matches unbeaten · away
- 3 matches without a win · all competitions
Team statistics for three seasons
Luxembourg at home and Bulgaria away, 2024–2026.
| Luxembourg | Bulgaria | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 13 | 15 |
| Win rate | 23% | 27% |
| Goals scored per match | 0.7 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.2 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39% | 47% |
| Both teams score | 23% | 33% |
| Total corners per match | 8.6 | 10.3 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 27% | 75% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.8 | 3.5 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 67% | 33% |
Head to head
6 meetings in our database: Luxembourg won 1, 3 draws, Bulgaria won 2. Per match: 2.2 goals, 10.0 corners, 8.0 yellow cards.
- 26.09.2026: Bulgaria 1:2 Luxembourg
- 15.11.2024: Luxembourg 0:1 Bulgaria
- 12.10.2024: Bulgaria 0:0 Luxembourg
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Luxembourg vs Bulgaria?
Our model expects 8.8 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 39%.
How many yellow cards in Luxembourg vs Bulgaria?
Our model expects 5.0 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 56%.