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Mafra vs Santa Clara: prediction and statistics
Portugal · Taça de Portugal · 18 October 2026 · kick-off
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.6 yellow cards: Mafra 2.2, Santa Clara 2.4; typical match of the competition — 4.7. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 48% (typical match — 51%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 52%, typical match 49%.
Result
Our model: Mafra win 34%, draw 26%, Santa Clara win 40%. Over 2.5 goals — 49%, both teams to score — 54%.
Form
Mafra: last five matches — D-W-W-W-D.
- 6 matches unbeaten · at home
Santa Clara: last five matches — L-W-D-W-W.
- 13 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row over 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
Team statistics for three seasons
Mafra at home and Santa Clara away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Mafra | Santa Clara | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 1 | 4 |
| Win rate | 0% | 75% |
| Goals scored per match | 2.0 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.0 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 50% |
| Both teams score | 100% | 50% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | 0.0 | 8.7 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 0% | 100% |
Head to head
2 meetings in our database: Mafra won 1, 0 draws, Santa Clara won 1. Per match: 1.5 goals, 4.0 corners, 3.5 yellow cards.
- 12.05.2024: Mafra 0:2 Santa Clara
- 06.01.2024: Santa Clara 0:1 Mafra
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own goals model — attack and defence of each team over its last 30 matches compared with the competition average, Poisson distribution for each team’s goals; tested the same way on 445,280 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many yellow cards in Mafra vs Santa Clara?
Our model expects 4.6 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 48%.
Who is more likely to win Mafra vs Santa Clara?
Our model: Mafra 34%, draw 26%, Santa Clara 40%.