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Os Belenenses vs Arouca: prediction and statistics
Portugal · Taça de Portugal · 18 October 2026 · kick-off
Yellow cards
Yellow cards over 4.5
Our model expects 4.9 yellow cards: Os Belenenses 2.4, Arouca 2.5; typical match of the competition — 4.7. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 55% (typical match — 51%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 4.5 — 55%, typical match 51%.
Result
Our model: Os Belenenses win 43%, draw 25%, Arouca win 32%. Over 2.5 goals — 52%, both teams to score — 55%.
Form
Os Belenenses: last five matches — D-D-W-W-W.
- 9 matches unbeaten · at home
- 7 wins in a row · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row without both teams scoring · at home
Arouca: last five matches — W-W-L-D-D.
- 3 matches without a win · away
- 3 matches in a row over 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
Team statistics for three seasons
Os Belenenses at home and Arouca away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Os Belenenses | Arouca | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 5 | 3 |
| Win rate | 60% | 67% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.4 | 2.7 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 100% |
| Both teams score | 20% | 67% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | 2.3 | 3.0 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 25% | 0% |
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own goals model — attack and defence of each team over its last 30 matches compared with the competition average, Poisson distribution for each team’s goals; tested the same way on 445,280 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many yellow cards in Os Belenenses vs Arouca?
Our model expects 4.9 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 55%.
Who is more likely to win Os Belenenses vs Arouca?
Our model: Os Belenenses 43%, draw 25%, Arouca 32%.