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Mainz vs Bayer Leverkusen: prediction and statistics
Germany · Bundesliga · 10 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 9.6 corners in the match: Mainz 5.1, Bayer Leverkusen 4.5. In a typical match of this competition — 9.7. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 49% (typical match — 50%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 9.5 — 51%, typical match 50%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.9 yellow cards: Mainz 1.9, Bayer Leverkusen 2.0; typical match of the competition — 3.9. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 35% (typical match — 35%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 65%, typical match 65%.
Result
Market line without margin: Mainz win 33%, draw 25%, Bayer Leverkusen win 42%. Over 2.5 goals — 66%, both teams to score — 65%.
Form
Mainz: last five matches — W-W-W-D-L.
- 3 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
Bayer Leverkusen: last five matches — L-W-W-L-D.
- 9 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · away
- 4 matches unbeaten · all competitions
Table: Mainz — 6, Bayer Leverkusen — 5 (of 18).
Team statistics for three seasons
Mainz at home and Bayer Leverkusen away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Mainz | Bayer Leverkusen | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 36 | 36 |
| Win rate | 28% | 47% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.3 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.3 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39% | 64% |
| Both teams score | 58% | 72% |
| Total corners per match | 9.8 | 9.4 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 56% | 50% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.2 | 4.1 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 36% | 42% |
Head to head
40 meetings in our database: Mainz won 12, 7 draws, Bayer Leverkusen won 21. Per match: 3.0 goals, 9.7 corners, 4.3 yellow cards.
- 28.02.2026: Bayer Leverkusen 1:1 Mainz
- 18.10.2025: Mainz 3:4 Bayer Leverkusen
- 17.05.2025: Mainz 2:2 Bayer Leverkusen
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Mainz vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our model expects 9.6 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 49%.
How many yellow cards in Mainz vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our model expects 3.9 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 35%.
Who is more likely to win Mainz vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Market line without margin: Mainz 33%, draw 25%, Bayer Leverkusen 42%.