Marines vs Police: prediction and statistics

Rwanda · National Soccer League · 5 November 2026 · kick-off 13:00 UTC

Team stats: Marines · Police

Key facts

• Police has won 9 of the last 14 meetings with Marines.
• Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 60% of Marines home games and 9% of Police away games.

Result

Our model: Marines win 47%, draw 29%, Police win 24%. Over 2.5 goals — 36%, both teams to score — 41%.

Form

Marines: last five matches — W-D-D-W-L.

• 4 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions

Police: last five matches — D-W-W-L-L.

• 7 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · away
• 6 matches in a row without both teams scoring · away

Table: Marines — 4, Police — 14 (of 19).

Team statistics for three seasons

Marines at home and Police away, 2024–2026.

Head to head

14 meetings in our database: Marines won 3, 2 draws, Police won 9. Per match: 2.4 goals.

• 25.04.2026: Police 2:0 Marines
• 26.10.2025: Marines 1:2 Police
• 16.02.2025: Police 4:0 Marines

Referee

The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.

How we calculate

Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.

Questions and answers