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Merw vs Altyn Asyr: prediction and statistics
Turkmenistan · Yokary Liga · 7 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Merw · Altyn Asyr
Key facts
- Altyn Asyr is the more likely winner in our model: 83%, draw 12%.
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 39% of Merw’s home matches and 53% of Altyn Asyr’s away matches over three seasons.
- Head to head favours Altyn Asyr: 20 wins in 26 meetings with Merw.
Result
Final score 0:0.
Result
Our model: Merw win 5%, draw 12%, Altyn Asyr win 83%. Over 2.5 goals — 64%, both teams to score — 40%.
Form
Merw: last five matches — L-W-D-D-L.
- 6 matches in a row without both teams scoring · all competitions
- 4 losses in a row · all competitions
- 4 matches without a win · all competitions
Altyn Asyr: last five matches — W-W-W-W-W.
- 12 matches unbeaten · away
- 8 wins in a row · away
Table: Merw — 5, Altyn Asyr — 2 (of 8).
Team statistics for three seasons
Merw at home and Altyn Asyr away, 2024–2026.
| Merw | Altyn Asyr | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 41 | 40 |
| Win rate | 32% | 65% |
| Goals scored per match | 0.9 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.5 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39% | 53% |
| Both teams score | 39% | 33% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | — | — |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | — | — |
Head to head
26 meetings in our database: Merw won 1, 5 draws, Altyn Asyr won 20. Per match: 2.6 goals, 10.0 corners, 3.0 yellow cards.
- 21.10.2026: Altyn Asyr 5:0 Merw
- 07.06.2026: Merw 0:2 Altyn Asyr
- 26.04.2026: Altyn Asyr 2:0 Merw
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
Who is more likely to win Merw vs Altyn Asyr?
Our model: Merw 5%, draw 12%, Altyn Asyr 83%.