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Minija vs Šiauliai: prediction and statistics
Lithuania · A Lyga · 15 November 2026 · kick-off
Before kick-off
A Lyga, 15 November 2026: Minija are at home to Šiauliai.
Recent results of Minija are mostly positive — 3 wins and 2 defeats from 5 games. Results have gone against Šiauliai recently — 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats from the last 5 games. On points from those games the gap is clear: 9 for Minija against 4 for Šiauliai.
Form
Minija: last five matches — W-L-L-W-W.
- 6 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
- 4 matches unbeaten · all competitions
Šiauliai: last five matches — L-L-L-D-W.
- 5 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · away
- 3 matches unbeaten · all competitions
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Minija is the more likely winner in our model: 51%, draw 22%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.2 yellow cards: Minija 1.9, Šiauliai 2.2; typical match of the competition — 4.3. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 41% (typical match — 43%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 60%, typical match 57%.
Result
Our model: Minija win 51%, draw 22%, Šiauliai win 27%. Over 2.5 goals — 62%, both teams to score — 62%.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.