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Minnesota United FC vs Houston Dynamo: prediction and statistics
USA · MLS · 11 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 9.9 corners in the match: Minnesota United FC 5.8, Houston Dynamo 4.2. In a typical match of this competition — 10.0. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 54% (typical match — 54%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 10.5 — 59%, typical match 58%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.2 yellow cards: Minnesota United FC 2.2, Houston Dynamo 2.0; typical match of the competition — 4.0. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 41% (typical match — 38%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 60%, typical match 57%.
Result
Market line without margin: Minnesota United FC win 45%, draw 26%, Houston Dynamo win 29%. Over 2.5 goals — 57%, both teams to score — 59%.
Form
Minnesota United FC: last five matches — W-L-D-L-L.
- 10 matches in a row both teams scored · all competitions
- 8 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
- 7 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
Houston Dynamo: last five matches — W-W-L-D-L.
- 3 matches without a win · away
- 3 matches in a row over 4.5 yellow cards · away
Table: Minnesota United FC — 26, Houston Dynamo — 8 (of 30).
Team statistics for three seasons
Minnesota United FC at home and Houston Dynamo away, 2024–2026.
| Minnesota United FC | Houston Dynamo | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 50 | 48 |
| Win rate | 34% | 35% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.3 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 50% |
| Both teams score | 62% | 50% |
| Total corners per match | 10.2 | 10.2 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 58% | 54% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.9 | 4.6 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 36% | 56% |
Head to head
24 meetings in our database: Minnesota United FC won 11, 5 draws, Houston Dynamo won 8. Per match: 2.7 goals, 10.4 corners, 3.6 yellow cards.
- 26.06.2025: Minnesota United FC 3:1 Houston Dynamo
- 15.05.2025: Houston Dynamo 2:0 Minnesota United FC
- 14.07.2024: Houston Dynamo 1:1 Minnesota United FC
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Minnesota United FC vs Houston Dynamo?
Our model expects 9.9 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 54%.
How many yellow cards in Minnesota United FC vs Houston Dynamo?
Our model expects 4.2 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 41%.
Who is more likely to win Minnesota United FC vs Houston Dynamo?
Market line without margin: Minnesota United FC 45%, draw 26%, Houston Dynamo 29%.