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Monarcas vs Leones Negros UDG: prediction and statistics
Mexico · Liga de Expansión · 13 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Monarcas · Leones Negros UDG
Before kick-off
Liga de Expansión, 13 November 2026: Monarcas are at home to Leones Negros UDG. They are neighbours in the table: Monarcas are 3rd and Leones Negros UDG 2nd of 16. Both sides are in the top three.
Recent results of Monarcas are mostly positive — 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat from 5 games. Leones Negros UDG have blown hot and cold: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in the last 5 matches.
Monarcas are hard to beat on their own ground — 25 wins, 8 draws and 8 defeats in 41 home matches (2024/25–2026/27), with 1.7 goals scored and 0.9 conceded per game. The away record of Leones Negros UDG: 16 wins, 9 draws and 19 defeats in 44 matches, with 1.3 goals scored and 1.6 conceded on average.
Head to head there is no clear master over 17 meetings — wins: Monarcas 5, Leones Negros UDG 10; draws: 2. The most recent meeting, on 20 September 2026, finished Monarcas 2:0 Leones Negros UDG. On average these meetings produce 2.0 goals.
Form
Monarcas: last five matches — W-W-D-L-W.
- 10 matches in a row over 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
- 8 matches in a row both teams scored · all competitions
- 5 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
Leones Negros UDG: last five matches — L-W-D-W-L.
- 3 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · away
- 3 matches in a row over 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
Table: Monarcas — 3, Leones Negros UDG — 2 (of 16).
Home and away record
Monarcas at home and Leones Negros UDG away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Monarcas | Leones Negros UDG | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 41 | 44 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 25-8-8 | 16-9-19 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.7 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.9 | 1.6 |
Head to head
17 meetings in our database: Monarcas won 5, 2 draws, Leones Negros UDG won 10. Per match: 2.0 goals.
- 20.09.2026: Monarcas 2:0 Leones Negros UDG
- 05.04.2026: Leones Negros UDG 2:0 Monarcas
- 26.10.2025: Monarcas 2:3 Leones Negros UDG
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Monarcas is the more likely winner in our model: 51%, draw 24%.
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 51% of Monarcas’s home matches and 55% of Leones Negros UDG’s away matches over three seasons.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards over 4.5
Our model expects 5.6 yellow cards: Monarcas 2.3, Leones Negros UDG 3.2; typical match of the competition — 5.3. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 65% (typical match — 61%).
Result
Our model: Monarcas win 51%, draw 24%, Leones Negros UDG win 26%. Over 2.5 goals — 56%, both teams to score — 57%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Monarcas | Leones Negros UDG | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 61% | 36% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 55% |
| Both teams score | 51% | 61% |
| Total corners per match | 10.0 | 9.0 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 100% | 0% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 5.5 | 4.6 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 71% | 55% |
Head to head
Yellow cards in their meetings: 6.2 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.