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Montedio Yamagata vs Sagan Tosu: prediction and statistics
Japan · J2 League · 26 September 2026 · kick-off
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 2.8 yellow cards: Montedio Yamagata 1.6, Sagan Tosu 1.2; typical match of the competition — 2.5. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 15% (typical match — 11%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 85%, typical match 89%.
Result
Market line without margin: Montedio Yamagata win 34%, draw 29%, Sagan Tosu win 37%. Over 2.5 goals — 49%, both teams to score — 54%.
Form
Montedio Yamagata: last five matches — W-D-L-L-L.
- 4 matches without a win · at home
- 3 losses in a row · at home
- 3 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · all competitions
Sagan Tosu: last five matches — D-D-W-L-L.
- 3 losses in a row · all competitions
- 3 matches without a win · all competitions
Table: Montedio Yamagata — 11, Sagan Tosu — 15 (of 20).
Team statistics for three seasons
Montedio Yamagata at home and Sagan Tosu away, 2024–2026.
| Montedio Yamagata | Sagan Tosu | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 43 | 22 |
| Win rate | 47% | 32% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.5 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 36% |
| Both teams score | 44% | 46% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | 2.5 | 2.0 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 12% | 9% |
Head to head
6 meetings in our database: Montedio Yamagata won 1, 1 draws, Sagan Tosu won 4. Per match: 3.3 goals, 1.5 yellow cards.
- 30.08.2025: Montedio Yamagata 3:2 Sagan Tosu
- 25.04.2025: Sagan Tosu 2:1 Montedio Yamagata
- 14.11.2015: Sagan Tosu 4:3 Montedio Yamagata
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many yellow cards in Montedio Yamagata vs Sagan Tosu?
Our model expects 2.8 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 15%.
Who is more likely to win Montedio Yamagata vs Sagan Tosu?
Market line without margin: Montedio Yamagata 34%, draw 29%, Sagan Tosu 37%.