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Montenegro vs Cyprus: prediction and statistics
Europe · Nations League · 25 September 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 9.0 corners in the match: Montenegro 4.8, Cyprus 4.2. In a typical match of this competition — 9.1. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 41% (typical match — 42%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 9.5 — 59%, typical match 58%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards over 4.5
Our model expects 4.8 yellow cards: Montenegro 2.4, Cyprus 2.5; typical match of the competition — 4.3. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 53% (typical match — 43%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 4.5 — 53%, typical match 43%.
Result
Market line without margin: Montenegro win 53%, draw 27%, Cyprus win 21%. Over 2.5 goals — 49%, both teams to score — 50%.
Form
Montenegro: last five matches — D-L-L-L-W.
- 4 matches in a row over 4.5 yellow cards · at home
Cyprus: last five matches — D-L-W-L-L.
- 5 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
Team statistics for three seasons
Montenegro at home and Cyprus away, 2024–2026.
| Montenegro | Cyprus | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 13 | 12 |
| Win rate | 46% | 33% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.5 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 58% |
| Both teams score | 62% | 50% |
| Total corners per match | 10.1 | 10.2 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 60% | 60% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.5 | 4.3 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 46% | 50% |
Head to head
3 meetings in our database: Montenegro won 2, 1 draws, Cyprus won 0. Per match: 2.0 goals, 7.5 corners, 4.3 yellow cards.
- 17.11.2020: Montenegro 4:0 Cyprus
- 05.09.2020: Cyprus 0:2 Montenegro
- 23.03.2018: Cyprus 0:0 Montenegro
Referee
Daniele Chiffi: 205 matches in our database, 3.9 yellow cards per match (competition average 4.7); over 4.5 cards in 37% of matches.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Montenegro vs Cyprus?
Our model expects 9.0 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 41%.
How many yellow cards in Montenegro vs Cyprus?
Our model expects 4.8 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 53%.
Who is more likely to win Montenegro vs Cyprus?
Market line without margin: Montenegro 53%, draw 27%, Cyprus 21%.