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Moreirense vs Gil Vicente: prediction and statistics
Portugal · Primeira Liga · 9 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 9.3 corners in the match: Moreirense 4.7, Gil Vicente 4.7. In a typical match of this competition — 10.1. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 46% (typical match — 56%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 9.5 — 54%, typical match 44%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.6 yellow cards: Moreirense 2.2, Gil Vicente 2.4; typical match of the competition — 5.2. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 48% (typical match — 59%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 52%, typical match 41%.
Result
Market line without margin: Moreirense win 28%, draw 29%, Gil Vicente win 43%. Over 2.5 goals — 41%, both teams to score — 47%.
Form
Moreirense: last five matches — D-W-D-L-W.
- 3 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · at home
Gil Vicente: last five matches — D-D-L-D-L.
- 8 matches without a win · away
Table: Moreirense — 12, Gil Vicente — 9 (of 18).
Team statistics for three seasons
Moreirense at home and Gil Vicente away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Moreirense | Gil Vicente | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 37 | 36 |
| Win rate | 41% | 19% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.3 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 50% |
| Both teams score | 57% | 50% |
| Total corners per match | 8.5 | 10.0 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 32% | 47% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 5.0 | 4.4 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 49% | 47% |
Head to head
22 meetings in our database: Moreirense won 9, 6 draws, Gil Vicente won 7. Per match: 2.5 goals, 8.6 corners, 3.5 yellow cards.
- 25.07.2026: Gil Vicente 2:2 Moreirense
- 07.02.2026: Moreirense 1:2 Gil Vicente
- 29.08.2025: Gil Vicente 2:0 Moreirense
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Moreirense vs Gil Vicente?
Our model expects 9.3 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 46%.
How many yellow cards in Moreirense vs Gil Vicente?
Our model expects 4.6 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 48%.
Who is more likely to win Moreirense vs Gil Vicente?
Market line without margin: Moreirense 28%, draw 29%, Gil Vicente 43%.