Mosul vs Duhok: prediction and statistics

Iraq · Iraq Stars League · 5 November 2026 · kick-off 15:30 UTC

Team stats: Mosul · Duhok

Key facts

• No clear favourite in our model: 34% – 26% – 40%.
• Over 2.5 goals happened in 56% of Mosul’s home matches and 48% of Duhok’s away matches over three seasons.

Result

Our model: Mosul win 34%, draw 26%, Duhok win 40%. Over 2.5 goals — 50%, both teams to score — 55%.

Form

Mosul: last five matches — W-D-L-L-L.

• 4 matches without a win · at home
• 3 losses in a row · at home

Duhok: last five matches — D-L-D-L-L.

• 10 matches without a win · away
• 3 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · away

Table: Mosul — 16, Duhok — 10 (of 20).

Team statistics for three seasons

Mosul at home and Duhok away, 2024–2026.

Head to head

2 meetings in our database: Mosul won 0, 2 draws, Duhok won 0. Per match: 3.0 goals.

• 15.05.2026: Mosul 3:3 Duhok
• 13.02.2026: Duhok 0:0 Mosul

Referee

The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.

How we calculate

Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.

Questions and answers