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MSV Duisburg vs FC Viktoria Köln: prediction and statistics
Germany · 3. Liga · 18 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 9.5 corners in the match: MSV Duisburg 5.2, FC Viktoria Köln 4.3. In a typical match of this competition — 10.1. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 48% (typical match — 56%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 9.5 — 52%, typical match 44%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards over 4.5
Our model expects 4.8 yellow cards: MSV Duisburg 2.3, FC Viktoria Köln 2.5; typical match of the competition — 4.5. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 53% (typical match — 48%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 4.5 — 53%, typical match 48%.
Result
Our model: MSV Duisburg win 46%, draw 22%, FC Viktoria Köln win 33%. Over 2.5 goals — 70%, both teams to score — 70%.
Form
MSV Duisburg: last five matches — W-L-W-W-W.
- 9 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
- 5 matches in a row both teams scored · all competitions
- 4 matches in a row under 9.5 corners · at home
FC Viktoria Köln: last five matches — D-W-W-L-W.
- 4 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 4 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
Table: MSV Duisburg — 1, FC Viktoria Köln — 2 (of 21).
Team statistics for three seasons
MSV Duisburg at home and FC Viktoria Köln away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| MSV Duisburg | FC Viktoria Köln | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 23 | 41 |
| Win rate | 78% | 37% |
| Goals scored per match | 2.2 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 74% | 54% |
| Both teams score | 78% | 59% |
| Total corners per match | 8.5 | 9.6 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 31% | 52% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 5.1 | 5.4 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 52% | 61% |
Head to head
12 meetings in our database: MSV Duisburg won 3, 4 draws, FC Viktoria Köln won 5. Per match: 2.6 goals, 9.0 corners, 4.1 yellow cards.
- 16.05.2026: MSV Duisburg 1:1 FC Viktoria Köln
- 21.12.2025: FC Viktoria Köln 0:0 MSV Duisburg
- 17.02.2024: MSV Duisburg 1:0 FC Viktoria Köln
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own goals model — attack and defence of each team over its last 30 matches compared with the competition average, Poisson distribution for each team’s goals; tested the same way on 445,280 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in MSV Duisburg vs FC Viktoria Köln?
Our model expects 9.5 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 48%.
How many yellow cards in MSV Duisburg vs FC Viktoria Köln?
Our model expects 4.8 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 53%.
Who is more likely to win MSV Duisburg vs FC Viktoria Köln?
Our model: MSV Duisburg 46%, draw 22%, FC Viktoria Köln 33%.