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Muğlaspor vs Bursaspor: prediction and statistics
Türkiye · 1. Lig · 15 October 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Muğlaspor · Bursaspor
Result
Our model: Muğlaspor win 26%, draw 29%, Bursaspor win 45%. Over 2.5 goals — 36%, both teams to score — 42%.
Form
Muğlaspor: last five matches — D-D-W-D-D.
- 8 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 4 matches without a win · all competitions
- 4 matches in a row both teams scored · all competitions
Bursaspor: last five matches — W-L-W-W-W.
- 7 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
- 4 matches in a row both teams scored · away
- 3 wins in a row · away
Table: Muğlaspor — 11, Bursaspor — 2 (of 20).
Team statistics for three seasons
Muğlaspor at home and Bursaspor away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Muğlaspor | Bursaspor | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 4 | 5 |
| Win rate | 25% | 80% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.5 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 80% |
| Both teams score | 50% | 80% |
| Total corners per match | 7.3 | 10.0 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 25% | 60% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 5.5 | 3.8 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 75% | 40% |
Head to head
1 meetings in our database: Muğlaspor won 0, 0 draws, Bursaspor won 1. Per match: 4.0 goals.
- 24.09.2019: Muğlaspor 1:3 Bursaspor
Referee
Ilker Yasin Avci: 10 matches in our database, 3.4 yellow cards per match (competition average 4.4); over 4.5 cards in 30% of matches.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
Who is more likely to win Muğlaspor vs Bursaspor?
Our model: Muğlaspor 26%, draw 29%, Bursaspor 45%.