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Municipal Limeño vs Fuerte San Francisco: prediction and statistics
El Salvador · Primera División · 5 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Municipal Limeño · Fuerte San Francisco
Key facts
- Our model makes Municipal Limeño the favourite at 64%; a draw is 22%.
- Municipal Limeño has won 9 of the last 13 meetings with Fuerte San Francisco.
- Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 46% of Municipal Limeño home games and 45% of Fuerte San Francisco away games.
Result
Final score 1:1.
Result
Our model: Municipal Limeño win 64%, draw 22%, Fuerte San Francisco win 15%. Over 2.5 goals — 50%, both teams to score — 46%.
Form
Municipal Limeño: last five matches — W-D-L-L-D.
- 8 matches in a row both teams scored · all competitions
- 4 matches without a win · at home
- 3 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · at home
Fuerte San Francisco: last five matches — L-D-D-D-L.
- 9 matches without a win · away
- 5 matches in a row both teams scored · all competitions
- 4 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
Table: Municipal Limeño — 8, Fuerte San Francisco — 12 (of 12).
Team statistics for three seasons
Municipal Limeño at home and Fuerte San Francisco away, 2024–2026.
| Municipal Limeño | Fuerte San Francisco | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 57 | 53 |
| Win rate | 42% | 23% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.4 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.1 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 45% |
| Both teams score | 49% | 42% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 0% | 0% |
Head to head
13 meetings in our database: Municipal Limeño won 9, 2 draws, Fuerte San Francisco won 2. Per match: 2.6 goals.
- 13.09.2026: Fuerte San Francisco 0:2 Municipal Limeño
- 12.04.2026: Fuerte San Francisco 0:2 Municipal Limeño
- 14.02.2026: Municipal Limeño 5:0 Fuerte San Francisco
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
Who is more likely to win Municipal Limeño vs Fuerte San Francisco?
Our model: Municipal Limeño 64%, draw 22%, Fuerte San Francisco 15%.