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MVV vs Helmond Sport: prediction and statistics
Netherlands · Eerste Divisie · 26 September 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 10.1 corners in the match: MVV 4.8, Helmond Sport 5.3. In a typical match of this competition — 10.1. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 56% (typical match — 56%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 9.5 — 56%, typical match 56%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.4 yellow cards: MVV 1.3, Helmond Sport 2.1; typical match of the competition — 3.3. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 25% (typical match — 24%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 75%, typical match 76%.
Result
Market line without margin: MVV win 48%, draw 26%, Helmond Sport win 26%. Over 2.5 goals — 58%, both teams to score — 61%.
Form
MVV: last five matches — L-W-W-D-L.
- 7 matches in a row under 9.5 corners · all competitions
- 3 matches without a win · all competitions
Helmond Sport: last five matches — D-L-L-L-L.
- 9 matches without a win · away
- 9 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · away
- 7 matches in a row both teams scored · all competitions
Table: MVV — 7, Helmond Sport — 14 (of 20).
Team statistics for three seasons
MVV at home and Helmond Sport away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| MVV | Helmond Sport | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 42 | 41 |
| Win rate | 40% | 17% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.6 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.6 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 59% |
| Both teams score | 60% | 56% |
| Total corners per match | 9.7 | 10.4 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 43% | 51% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.2 | 3.5 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 23% | 21% |
Head to head
20 meetings in our database: MVV won 12, 5 draws, Helmond Sport won 3. Per match: 3.4 goals, 10.8 corners, 1.9 yellow cards.
- 10.04.2026: MVV 0:0 Helmond Sport
- 05.12.2025: Helmond Sport 2:4 MVV
- 07.03.2025: Helmond Sport 4:0 MVV
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in MVV vs Helmond Sport?
Our model expects 10.1 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 56%.
How many yellow cards in MVV vs Helmond Sport?
Our model expects 3.4 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 25%.
Who is more likely to win MVV vs Helmond Sport?
Market line without margin: MVV 48%, draw 26%, Helmond Sport 26%.