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Nacional Asuncion vs Sportivo Ameliano: prediction and statistics
Paraguay · Primera División · 25 September 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 8.8 corners in the match: Nacional Asuncion 4.8, Sportivo Ameliano 4.0. In a typical match of this competition — 9.2. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 39% (typical match — 44%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 9.5 — 62%, typical match 56%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards over 4.5
Our model expects 5.1 yellow cards: Nacional Asuncion 2.3, Sportivo Ameliano 2.8; typical match of the competition — 4.8. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 58% (typical match — 53%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 4.5 — 58%, typical match 53%.
Result
Market line without margin: Nacional Asuncion win 52%, draw 28%, Sportivo Ameliano win 21%. Over 2.5 goals — 43%, both teams to score — 44%.
Form
Nacional Asuncion: last five matches — W-D-W-W-W.
- 14 matches unbeaten · at home
- 6 matches in a row without both teams scoring · all competitions
- 3 wins in a row · at home
Sportivo Ameliano: last five matches — D-L-D-W-D.
- 5 matches in a row both teams scored · away
- 3 matches unbeaten · away
Table: Nacional Asuncion — 2, Sportivo Ameliano — 5 (of 12).
Team statistics for three seasons
Nacional Asuncion at home and Sportivo Ameliano away, 2024–2026.
| Nacional Asuncion | Sportivo Ameliano | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 60 | 60 |
| Win rate | 50% | 30% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 35% |
| Both teams score | 47% | 55% |
| Total corners per match | 8.8 | 8.5 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 44% | 25% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 5.4 | 4.7 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 67% | 52% |
Head to head
19 meetings in our database: Nacional Asuncion won 5, 7 draws, Sportivo Ameliano won 7. Per match: 2.0 goals, 7.0 corners, 5.3 yellow cards.
- 25.07.2026: Sportivo Ameliano 1:1 Nacional Asuncion
- 20.04.2026: Sportivo Ameliano 1:1 Nacional Asuncion
- 19.02.2026: Nacional Asuncion 1:1 Sportivo Ameliano
Referee
Derlis Benitez: 45 matches in our database, 5.0 yellow cards per match (competition average 4.7); over 4.5 cards in 56% of matches.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Nacional Asuncion vs Sportivo Ameliano?
Our model expects 8.8 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 39%.
How many yellow cards in Nacional Asuncion vs Sportivo Ameliano?
Our model expects 5.1 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 58%.
Who is more likely to win Nacional Asuncion vs Sportivo Ameliano?
Market line without margin: Nacional Asuncion 52%, draw 28%, Sportivo Ameliano 21%.