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Naftagas vs Jedinstvo Ub: prediction and statistics
Serbia · Prva Liga · 28 September 2026 · kick-off
Yellow cards
Yellow cards over 4.5
Our model expects 5.4 yellow cards: Naftagas 3.0, Jedinstvo Ub 2.4; typical match of the competition — 4.5. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 62% (typical match — 47%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 4.5 — 62%, typical match 47%.
Form
Naftagas: last five matches — L-L-W-D-D.
- 5 matches without a win · all competitions
- 4 matches in a row over 4.5 yellow cards · at home
- 3 matches unbeaten · at home
Jedinstvo Ub: last five matches — L-W-L-L-L.
- 3 losses in a row · away
- 3 matches without a win · away
Table: Naftagas — 13, Jedinstvo Ub — 14 (of 16).
Team statistics for three seasons
Naftagas at home and Jedinstvo Ub away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Naftagas | Jedinstvo Ub | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 4 | 22 |
| Win rate | 25% | 27% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.3 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 36% |
| Both teams score | 75% | 36% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | 7.5 | 4.8 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 100% | 55% |
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many yellow cards in Naftagas vs Jedinstvo Ub?
Our model expects 5.4 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 62%.