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Nautico Recife vs Sport Recife: prediction and statistics
Brazil · Serie B · 26 September 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 10.4 corners in the match: Nautico Recife 6.3, Sport Recife 4.1. In a typical match of this competition — 10.3. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 59% (typical match — 58%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 9.5 — 59%, typical match 58%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards over 4.5
Our model expects 5.0 yellow cards: Nautico Recife 2.5, Sport Recife 2.5; typical match of the competition — 4.9. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 56% (typical match — 54%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 4.5 — 56%, typical match 54%.
Result
Market line without margin: Nautico Recife win 40%, draw 28%, Sport Recife win 31%. Over 2.5 goals — 53%, both teams to score — 58%.
Form
Nautico Recife: last five matches — D-W-W-W-D.
- 7 matches unbeaten · at home
- 3 matches without a win · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
Sport Recife: last five matches — W-L-L-L-L.
- 4 losses in a row · away
- 4 matches without a win · away
- 4 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · away
Table: Nautico Recife — 14, Sport Recife — 9 (of 20).
Team statistics for three seasons
Nautico Recife at home and Sport Recife away, 2024–2026.
| Nautico Recife | Sport Recife | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 14 | 33 |
| Win rate | 50% | 33% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.1 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.9 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 36% | 39% |
| Both teams score | 29% | 49% |
| Total corners per match | 9.8 | 10.3 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 50% | 64% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 5.2 | 5.1 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 69% | 64% |
Head to head
5 meetings in our database: Nautico Recife won 1, 2 draws, Sport Recife won 2. Per match: 1.6 goals, 11.0 corners, 5.0 yellow cards.
- 30.05.2026: Sport Recife 2:0 Nautico Recife
- 29.09.2022: Sport Recife 2:1 Nautico Recife
- 18.06.2022: Nautico Recife 1:1 Sport Recife
Referee
Daiane Caroline Muniz Dos Santos: 16 matches in our database, 3.7 yellow cards per match (competition average 5.0); over 4.5 cards in 25% of matches.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Nautico Recife vs Sport Recife?
Our model expects 10.4 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 59%.
How many yellow cards in Nautico Recife vs Sport Recife?
Our model expects 5.0 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 56%.
Who is more likely to win Nautico Recife vs Sport Recife?
Market line without margin: Nautico Recife 40%, draw 28%, Sport Recife 31%.