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Nautico Recife vs Vila Nova: prediction and statistics
Brazil · Serie B · 11 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 10.6 corners in the match: Nautico Recife 6.3, Vila Nova 4.2. In a typical match of this competition — 10.3. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 61% (typical match — 58%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 9.5 — 61%, typical match 58%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards over 4.5
Our model expects 5.0 yellow cards: Nautico Recife 2.6, Vila Nova 2.5; typical match of the competition — 4.9. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 56% (typical match — 54%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 4.5 — 56%, typical match 54%.
Form
Nautico Recife: last five matches — W-W-W-D-W.
- 8 matches unbeaten · at home
- 3 matches in a row over 9.5 corners · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
Vila Nova: last five matches — W-D-L-D-W.
- 5 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 5 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · all competitions
- 3 wins in a row · all competitions
Table: Nautico Recife — 13, Vila Nova — 1 (of 20).
Team statistics for three seasons
Nautico Recife at home and Vila Nova away, 2024–2026.
| Nautico Recife | Vila Nova | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 15 | 54 |
| Win rate | 53% | 20% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.3 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.9 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 33% |
| Both teams score | 33% | 39% |
| Total corners per match | 10.5 | 10.3 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 53% | 50% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 5.0 | 5.6 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 67% | 69% |
Head to head
12 meetings in our database: Nautico Recife won 7, 0 draws, Vila Nova won 5. Per match: 2.7 goals, 9.3 corners, 2.8 yellow cards.
- 20.06.2026: Vila Nova 4:3 Nautico Recife
- 09.03.2023: Nautico Recife 2:1 Vila Nova
- 20.08.2022: Nautico Recife 1:2 Vila Nova
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Nautico Recife vs Vila Nova?
Our model expects 10.6 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 61%.
How many yellow cards in Nautico Recife vs Vila Nova?
Our model expects 5.0 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 56%.