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NEC Nijmegen vs Levski Sofia: prediction and statistics
Europe · Europa League · 15 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 9.2 corners in the match: NEC Nijmegen 5.0, Levski Sofia 4.2. In a typical match of this competition — 9.5. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 44% (typical match — 48%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 9.5 — 56%, typical match 52%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.8 yellow cards: NEC Nijmegen 1.9, Levski Sofia 1.9; typical match of the competition — 4.5. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 33% (typical match — 46%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 68%, typical match 54%.
Result
Market line without margin: NEC Nijmegen win 50%, draw 26%, Levski Sofia win 24%. Over 2.5 goals — 55%, both teams to score — 56%.
Form
NEC Nijmegen: last five matches — W-L-L-D-D.
- 7 matches in a row both teams scored · at home
- 5 matches without a win · all competitions
- 4 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · at home
Levski Sofia: last five matches — W-L-W-W-D.
- 3 matches unbeaten · away
- 3 matches without a win · all competitions
Team statistics for three seasons
NEC Nijmegen at home and Levski Sofia away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| NEC Nijmegen | Levski Sofia | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | — | 2 |
| Win rate | — | 50% |
| Goals scored per match | — | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded per match | — | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | — | 50% |
| Both teams score | — | 50% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | — | 3.0 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | — | 0% |
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in NEC Nijmegen vs Levski Sofia?
Our model expects 9.2 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 44%.
How many yellow cards in NEC Nijmegen vs Levski Sofia?
Our model expects 3.8 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 33%.
Who is more likely to win NEC Nijmegen vs Levski Sofia?
Market line without margin: NEC Nijmegen 50%, draw 26%, Levski Sofia 24%.