Xpect
NEC vs UPDF: prediction and statistics
Uganda · Premier League · 3 November 2026 · kick-off
Key facts
- Our model makes NEC the favourite at 67%; a draw is 24%.
- 3 of the 6 meetings between these teams ended in a draw.
- Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 36% of NEC home games and 49% of UPDF away games.
Result
Final score 1:0.
Result
Our model: NEC win 67%, draw 24%, UPDF win 9%. Over 2.5 goals — 32%, both teams to score — 26%.
Form
NEC: last five matches — L-W-W-D-W.
- 4 matches unbeaten · at home
UPDF: last five matches — L-L-L-D-W.
- 3 losses in a row · all competitions
- 3 matches without a win · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · all competitions
Table: NEC — 2, UPDF — 13 (of 18).
Team statistics for three seasons
NEC at home and UPDF away, 2024–2026.
| NEC | UPDF | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 33 | 33 |
| Win rate | 67% | 24% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.6 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.6 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 36% | 49% |
| Both teams score | 46% | 39% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | 1.9 | 1.2 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 10% | 3% |
Head to head
6 meetings in our database: NEC won 3, 3 draws, UPDF won 0. Per match: 1.3 goals, 2.4 yellow cards.
- 03.03.2026: NEC 1:0 UPDF
- 16.12.2025: UPDF 0:0 NEC
- 04.04.2025: UPDF 0:0 NEC
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
Who is more likely to win NEC vs UPDF?
Our model: NEC 67%, draw 24%, UPDF 9%.