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Newells Old Boys vs Lanus: prediction and statistics
Argentina · Liga Profesional · 3 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 9.1 corners in the match: Newells Old Boys 4.7, Lanus 4.4. In a typical match of this competition — 9.4. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 43% (typical match — 47%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 9.5 — 57%, typical match 53%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards over 4.5
Our model expects 4.7 yellow cards: Newells Old Boys 2.1, Lanus 2.6; typical match of the competition — 5.0. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 51% (typical match — 57%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 69%, typical match 74%.
Result
Market line without margin: Newells Old Boys win 32%, draw 32%, Lanus win 36%. Over 2.5 goals — 35%, both teams to score — 42%.
Form
Newells Old Boys: last five matches — W-D-W-W-D.
- 7 matches unbeaten · at home
- 4 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · at home
Lanus: last five matches — L-L-W-L-W.
- 5 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row without both teams scoring · away
- 3 wins in a row · all competitions
Table: Newells Old Boys — 23, Lanus — 13 (of 30).
Team statistics for three seasons
Newells Old Boys at home and Lanus away, 2024–2026.
| Newells Old Boys | Lanus | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 43 | 43 |
| Win rate | 30% | 26% |
| Goals scored per match | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 26% | 37% |
| Both teams score | 44% | 42% |
| Total corners per match | 9.3 | 9.2 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 41% | 42% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.6 | 4.8 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 54% | 58% |
Head to head
16 meetings in our database: Newells Old Boys won 9, 3 draws, Lanus won 4. Per match: 2.7 goals, 9.2 corners, 4.8 yellow cards.
- 17.03.2026: Lanus 5:0 Newells Old Boys
- 05.10.2024: Newells Old Boys 2:1 Lanus
- 31.01.2024: Lanus 0:2 Newells Old Boys
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Newells Old Boys vs Lanus?
Our model expects 9.1 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 43%.
How many yellow cards in Newells Old Boys vs Lanus?
Our model expects 4.7 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 51%.
Who is more likely to win Newells Old Boys vs Lanus?
Market line without margin: Newells Old Boys 32%, draw 32%, Lanus 36%.