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Newport County vs Grimsby: prediction and statistics
England · League Two · 26 September 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 10.4 corners in the match: Newport County 5.1, Grimsby 5.4. In a typical match of this competition — 9.8. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 59% (typical match — 52%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 9.5 — 59%, typical match 52%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.8 yellow cards: Newport County 1.9, Grimsby 1.9; typical match of the competition — 3.7. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 34% (typical match — 32%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 53%, typical match 51%.
Result
Market line without margin: Newport County win 22%, draw 26%, Grimsby win 52%. Over 2.5 goals — 51%, both teams to score — 54%.
Form
Newport County: last five matches — W-W-W-D-D.
- 5 matches unbeaten · at home
- 5 matches in a row over 9.5 corners · at home
- 4 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · all competitions
Grimsby: last five matches — W-D-D-D-L.
- 4 matches without a win · away
- 3 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · away
- 3 matches in a row both teams scored · away
Table: Newport County — 19, Grimsby — 3 (of 24).
Team statistics for three seasons
Newport County at home and Grimsby away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Newport County | Grimsby | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 49 | 50 |
| Win rate | 35% | 42% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.5 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 54% |
| Both teams score | 53% | 56% |
| Total corners per match | 9.9 | 10.0 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 59% | 52% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.2 | 4.3 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 35% | 42% |
Head to head
23 meetings in our database: Newport County won 6, 9 draws, Grimsby won 8. Per match: 1.7 goals, 9.4 corners, 2.6 yellow cards.
- 07.02.2026: Newport County 0:0 Grimsby
- 16.08.2025: Grimsby 2:1 Newport County
- 22.03.2025: Grimsby 1:0 Newport County
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Newport County vs Grimsby?
Our model expects 10.4 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 59%.
How many yellow cards in Newport County vs Grimsby?
Our model expects 3.8 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 34%.
Who is more likely to win Newport County vs Grimsby?
Market line without margin: Newport County 22%, draw 26%, Grimsby 52%.